You can see our original predictions here.

“Ageing population”

Yes, in as many words. “There are half a million more people aged over 75 than there were in 2010. And there will be 2 million more in ten years’ time.”

“Better Care Fund”

Yes, in the Budget Book: “Building on the approach to the Better Care Fund, councils will need to work with their NHS colleagues to consider how funding can be best spent.”

“Delayed transfers of care/pressure on our hospitals and A&E departments”

Yes. “But the system is clearly under pressure. And this in turn puts pressure on our NHS.” And “Just 24 local authorities are responsible for over half of all delayed discharges to social care.” And “To enable elderly patients to be discharged when they are ready, freeing up precious NHS beds”. And “The social care package I have announced today will help to free up beds by easing discharge of elderly patients. (We said he’d over-egg this one, and he did).


Not the word but the principle: “how money can be best spent”. See Better Care Fund above.

“Long-term solution”

Yes. “But the long-term challenges of sustainably funding care in old age requires a strategic approach”.

“Ducked the issue”

No. The Chancellor avoided the temptation to take a dig at previous governments.

“This government”

Yes. “The government will provide an additional £2bn to councils overs the next 3 years to spend on adult social care services”. (Budget Book)

“Additional funding”

Yes. “Today I am committing additional grant funding of £2bn to social care in England over the next three years.”


No. Lots about efficiency but no mention of a CQC role in overseeing it.


Not specifically but “the government has already delivered more than £7bn extra spending power to the system” is presumably a reference to the precept.


As expected, not a mention.

“Death Tax”

Surprisingly, yes – but only to say “These options do not included, and have never included, a Death Tax”. Which is arguably the most worrying part of the budget. Why are we ruling out a possible funding option months before even a Green Paper is published?


As expected, no. But – unlike the Death Tax - nor did he rule it out.

And respect to Richard Humphries, who correctly added two phrases to our list:


Yes, see ‘long-term solution’ above


It’s not just about money:

Almost word for word: “Of course, this is not only about money”.


Who says politics isn’t predictable?

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